Nothing like a rhetorical title to confuse everyone I like to think, but it's a question that every manager thinks about several times a session in FML? Why? Well maybe because FML has more in common with Command & Conquer or Warcraft III than Pro Evo or FIFA 09. It's a resource management game where you have two resources if you will; players and cash.
Lionel Messi (having slated him in the last article) has just been transferred for what I guess is a server record of £18m. Is he worth it? Well according to the in game banter and endless reply to alls on the discussion lists (and yes I know they have to be reply to alls) yes and/or no. Simple.
Some managers don't understand how the buying manager can afford £18m. A quick butchers at his transfers tabs will demonstrate a methodical approach (built up over shared beta worlds) where he generated as much cash as possible in the first week, then went on a focused trading strategy to generate our second resource from above, cash. He has now started to convert that cash into talent - namely Messi (plus others in his squad). Now obviously there are changes afoot in January to prevent this type of approach, and as realism goes it again demonstrates that FML is vastly different to FMxx. It's not a simulation, it's fantasy football, it's trading players like shares (or meat if you prefer), it's a RTS game.
But is Messi worth £18m? He's young, one of the top 5 players in the gameworld, has one of the highest if not the highest potential (197/200 in FM08) and if played correctly will obviously improve the quality of a team. He will obviously be an asset for a long time, and there is little chance that he would be sold for profit given the high cash figure. Yet to determine whether he is worth the money we must consider what alternatives are on offer.
Could two almost as good players be bought for the same amount? Almost definitely yes. An example of this would be if you compare the abilities of Messi and a bunch of random other good players purely by comparing their current abilities as per FM08 (and senior players don't change much year on year) you would see that Messi is 11% better than Breno, 11% better than Adrien, 6% better than Rooney, 26% better than Javi Martinez and 25% than Gareth Bale. I reckon any two of those players could be bought for £18m.
I'd like to return to an old article written about acquisition fees. AFs make good players look better than they are because the increments change in size on the scale. At the top end, increments change in units of £250,000, around the average level of £100,000 AF they move in blocks of £10,000. A change for Fabregas from £3.25m to £3.5m looks huge, but is in fact the same movement of £100k to £110k for Oliver Kapo. Is Fabregas worth 30 times the value of Kapo? No - he's 29% better (180 current ability / 140 current ability minus 1). The best value for money players are in the £150k to £350k range. A team full of £300k AF players would win most of their games. Purely looking at AF tends to give the impression that the good players are so much better than the above average players when it is just not true. Because the scale is not linear the better players get exponentially more expensive the higher you go up the scale. There are a bunch of average £1m AF players who are no better, and often if they have high reputation somewhat worse, than the best £250k players.
If it was me, I'd take £18m for Messi, I don't think I would bid that much for him. £18m for me would represent 4-5 first team players who would collectively improve my starting 11 and increase the standing of my club. Again, as mentioned in a previous article the best deal I saw struck in beta was Fabregas for Baylon, Caio, Javi Martinez, Alex Teixiera and £2m. Four first team players with lower wages than Cesc plus cash - improved the team, reduced the wage bill and increased the cash balance. That is the definition of a good deal and is hard to dispute. You can easily dispute the Messi deal. Personally I think that many of the top names are vanity buys - favourite players IRL, trophy players or commodities ready to be sold on for a profit.
FML is Command & Conquer or Warcraft III not Emlyn Hughes' Soccer, Sensible Soccer, Kick Off, Football Director or Match Day. What goes on off the pitch is not the prelude to what happens on the pitch, it's the vast majority of the game.
Tuesday 16 December 2008
Wednesday 10 December 2008
End of season player review and awards
So season one of Saunders is about to end and I thought I would take a look at the player statistics for the season. Any form of interpretation of analysis should focus on determining what is there that shouldn't be there and what isn't there that should be there. So are the usual suspects at the top of the average ratings? Or is there someone unfancied who crept in? And importantly who is missing?
Below are a number of lists featuring the leading players using different criteria. All players mentioned have at least 50 appearances to remove outliers. Where specific stats are looked at, a minimum number is applied as an addition feature. For example you can't look at crossing percentage and include DCs who have made only 1 cross in a season - so a minimum of 200 crosses was applied.
Highest average rating - The Lionel Messi Award
1. Kaka - 7.75
2. Cristiano Ronaldo - 7.67
3. Lucio - 7.57
4. Luca Toni - 7.49
5. Dani Alves - 7.46
No surprises with Kaka being top. 147 goals in 141 games suggests he is playing AMC and taking the set pieces. Lucio's goal every other game helps boost him to 3rd on the list - someone obviously knows how to use him at corners. And Dani Alves (my favourite player in FML) demonstrates a defender can make it right to the top. But where is Messi? He finished outside the top 50 with a still respectable 7.27 average rating.
Highest goals per game ratio - The Samuel Eto'o Award
1. Kaka - 1.04
2. Luca Toni - 0.97
3. Wayne Rooney - 0.91
4. Fernando Torres - 0.91
5. Didier Drogba - 0.85
Again few surprises, although Kaka has done well to outscore his illustrious company. I guess the lesson here is, regardless of cost, the best strikers will always get you goals. You have to drop to number 19 on the list to find a striker with an acquisition fee less than £500k, Aston Villa's veteran targetman John Carew who scored 310 in 411. The award was named after Eto'o, because even in his 'terrible' season last year he scored 16 in 17 for Barca in the league.
Highest average rating for an Under 19 - The Ian Olney Award
1. Gareth Bale
2. Miralem Pjanic
3. Gabriel Torje
4. Mario Balotelli
5. Toni Kroos
There is some real talent in this list. These players represent some of the most sought after in the game. Gareth Bale averaged 7.23 in senior football games, and that figure is not boosted by being the set piece taker. Right on his heals is Miralem Pjanic, the young Bosnian. As the old adage goes if you are good enough you are old enough. I doubt many regens will ever attain this level of excellence by the age of 18 or 19. Aside from Balotelli, all the others have multiple PPMs.
Highest avg rating - under £100k Acquisition Fee - The Eduardo Albacar Award
1. Alvaro Recoba
2. Marek Heinz
3. Walter Jimenez
4. Sebastian Abreu
5. Frode Johnsen
So yes, it is still worth buying Alvaro Recoba. 157 goals and 250 assists in 408 games and a chart topping rating of 7.32. All for an initial fee of £26k. Not many £26k players have wage demands of £12k a day but he is definitely worth it, and if you ever come across a player with high wages and low acquisition fee it's always worthwhile digging a bit deeper to see why. A year younger at 31, Heinz cost just £24k on his way to averaging 7.32 too. Special mention also goes to Sebastian Abreu who at 32, banged in 93 in 128 games.
Most tackles per game - The John Terry Award
1. James McEveley
2. Jose Buricaga Jr
3. Vitaliy Fedoriv
4. Sam Koskinen
5. Sebastien Pocognoli
Former Blackburn prospect James McEveley topped the average tackles per match rating - maybe helped by the work he had to get through for his 588th ranked manager. I sometimes think that having to make tackles means that players are out of position or you are not dominating possession enough. I personally prefer interceptions to tackles.
Most dribbles per game - The Robinho (at home) Award
1. Mauro Rosales
2. David Odonkor
3. Teo
4. Dani Alves
5. Maicon
Some more familiar names in this list - particularly arguably two of the best DRs in the game in Maicon and Alves. With an average of over 9 dribbles per match Rosales represents a real threat down the right flank and also rather worryingly for opposition managers has 17 for crossing. Some hard tackling and tight marking required for this guy I think.
There is a veritable treasure trove of information under the player statistics tab in All Players. Sensible managers should use it to inform their transfer policy. Any player that can average 7 without taking set pieces or be the dominant DC at corner time is worth consideration. Whilst the Acquisition Fee snobs only look at £1m+ players, a clever manager digs deeper and finds the bargains that can do a job for them.
Below are a number of lists featuring the leading players using different criteria. All players mentioned have at least 50 appearances to remove outliers. Where specific stats are looked at, a minimum number is applied as an addition feature. For example you can't look at crossing percentage and include DCs who have made only 1 cross in a season - so a minimum of 200 crosses was applied.
Highest average rating - The Lionel Messi Award
1. Kaka - 7.75
2. Cristiano Ronaldo - 7.67
3. Lucio - 7.57
4. Luca Toni - 7.49
5. Dani Alves - 7.46
No surprises with Kaka being top. 147 goals in 141 games suggests he is playing AMC and taking the set pieces. Lucio's goal every other game helps boost him to 3rd on the list - someone obviously knows how to use him at corners. And Dani Alves (my favourite player in FML) demonstrates a defender can make it right to the top. But where is Messi? He finished outside the top 50 with a still respectable 7.27 average rating.
Highest goals per game ratio - The Samuel Eto'o Award
1. Kaka - 1.04
2. Luca Toni - 0.97
3. Wayne Rooney - 0.91
4. Fernando Torres - 0.91
5. Didier Drogba - 0.85
Again few surprises, although Kaka has done well to outscore his illustrious company. I guess the lesson here is, regardless of cost, the best strikers will always get you goals. You have to drop to number 19 on the list to find a striker with an acquisition fee less than £500k, Aston Villa's veteran targetman John Carew who scored 310 in 411. The award was named after Eto'o, because even in his 'terrible' season last year he scored 16 in 17 for Barca in the league.
Highest average rating for an Under 19 - The Ian Olney Award
1. Gareth Bale
2. Miralem Pjanic
3. Gabriel Torje
4. Mario Balotelli
5. Toni Kroos
There is some real talent in this list. These players represent some of the most sought after in the game. Gareth Bale averaged 7.23 in senior football games, and that figure is not boosted by being the set piece taker. Right on his heals is Miralem Pjanic, the young Bosnian. As the old adage goes if you are good enough you are old enough. I doubt many regens will ever attain this level of excellence by the age of 18 or 19. Aside from Balotelli, all the others have multiple PPMs.
Highest avg rating - under £100k Acquisition Fee - The Eduardo Albacar Award
1. Alvaro Recoba
2. Marek Heinz
3. Walter Jimenez
4. Sebastian Abreu
5. Frode Johnsen
So yes, it is still worth buying Alvaro Recoba. 157 goals and 250 assists in 408 games and a chart topping rating of 7.32. All for an initial fee of £26k. Not many £26k players have wage demands of £12k a day but he is definitely worth it, and if you ever come across a player with high wages and low acquisition fee it's always worthwhile digging a bit deeper to see why. A year younger at 31, Heinz cost just £24k on his way to averaging 7.32 too. Special mention also goes to Sebastian Abreu who at 32, banged in 93 in 128 games.
Most tackles per game - The John Terry Award
1. James McEveley
2. Jose Buricaga Jr
3. Vitaliy Fedoriv
4. Sam Koskinen
5. Sebastien Pocognoli
Former Blackburn prospect James McEveley topped the average tackles per match rating - maybe helped by the work he had to get through for his 588th ranked manager. I sometimes think that having to make tackles means that players are out of position or you are not dominating possession enough. I personally prefer interceptions to tackles.
Most dribbles per game - The Robinho (at home) Award
1. Mauro Rosales
2. David Odonkor
3. Teo
4. Dani Alves
5. Maicon
Some more familiar names in this list - particularly arguably two of the best DRs in the game in Maicon and Alves. With an average of over 9 dribbles per match Rosales represents a real threat down the right flank and also rather worryingly for opposition managers has 17 for crossing. Some hard tackling and tight marking required for this guy I think.
There is a veritable treasure trove of information under the player statistics tab in All Players. Sensible managers should use it to inform their transfer policy. Any player that can average 7 without taking set pieces or be the dominant DC at corner time is worth consideration. Whilst the Acquisition Fee snobs only look at £1m+ players, a clever manager digs deeper and finds the bargains that can do a job for them.
Thursday 4 December 2008
Playing the futures market
When setting up your initial squad it's a good idea to buy a couple of the best teenagers you can find. Two is plenty because unless you are going down the road of youth development, young players won't contribute too much in the first season and if they are any good a significant amount of your initial £500,000 budget will be spent on them. Many managers start off with this strategy, but kind of give up after a week or two and sell these young wonderkids on for a quick buck.
The trouble with this strategy is nobody has any money in the first two weeks. Selling is the easy option. A much better strategy is to hold onto the player until the conditions are perfect to sell. I'll explain with an example.
I get probably two offers a day for Gai Assulin, the young Israeli Barca player (pictured). Best offer so far, and we're still in season one, is £1.5m. He cost me £85k in my initial squad (17% of my budget). But as someone so young, he is going to be popular with youth focused managers for a number of years yet. Yes I could cash in now, but £1.5m isn't buying much on the open market. Most £80k AF players are listed for £1m-£2m - not good value (12-25 times AF). However what if I find a youth manager who has two 21 year olds, oh say Ryan Babel and Christian Maidana for example. He could sell those guys at the end of the season because they can't play youth football next season. Or he could trade them to someone like me who is sitting on arguably one of the best 17/18 year olds in the game who will give him 3-4 more seasons at the U21 level. I get two ready made first teamers, who I could sell for even more money than Assulin if they don't work out - or more than likely I keep as first picks. Babel and Maidana are probably worth £1m in AFs, Assulin currently £130k - but 22 year olds are worth nothing to youth managers.
Youth managers are often irrational in their pursuit of wonderkids. They will spend far more on potential ability than current ability. Will Assulin ever be better than Deco? Probably not. Is he worth more than Deco? Probably yes - if you are a youth manager. Our role is not to question the sanity of those youth managers but to make a tidy profit out of them.
The trouble with this strategy is nobody has any money in the first two weeks. Selling is the easy option. A much better strategy is to hold onto the player until the conditions are perfect to sell. I'll explain with an example.
I get probably two offers a day for Gai Assulin, the young Israeli Barca player (pictured). Best offer so far, and we're still in season one, is £1.5m. He cost me £85k in my initial squad (17% of my budget). But as someone so young, he is going to be popular with youth focused managers for a number of years yet. Yes I could cash in now, but £1.5m isn't buying much on the open market. Most £80k AF players are listed for £1m-£2m - not good value (12-25 times AF). However what if I find a youth manager who has two 21 year olds, oh say Ryan Babel and Christian Maidana for example. He could sell those guys at the end of the season because they can't play youth football next season. Or he could trade them to someone like me who is sitting on arguably one of the best 17/18 year olds in the game who will give him 3-4 more seasons at the U21 level. I get two ready made first teamers, who I could sell for even more money than Assulin if they don't work out - or more than likely I keep as first picks. Babel and Maidana are probably worth £1m in AFs, Assulin currently £130k - but 22 year olds are worth nothing to youth managers.
Youth managers are often irrational in their pursuit of wonderkids. They will spend far more on potential ability than current ability. Will Assulin ever be better than Deco? Probably not. Is he worth more than Deco? Probably yes - if you are a youth manager. Our role is not to question the sanity of those youth managers but to make a tidy profit out of them.
Tuesday 2 December 2008
My favourite time of the year
Gameworld Saunders is coming to the end of it's first season and we are three days away from the start of the first contract expiry period. Many managers who have not had the chance to play the beta will have never experienced one of these events before. I have written previously about how to approach this, but I think it's worthwhile going over the basics again. I also strongly advise any manager to read the relevant elements of the game guide (http://manual.fmlive.co.uk/?q=node/142 - which I wrote during beta).
Firstly, it's a really bad time to try to sell players. Managers are not going to pay over the odds for your players if there are cheaper alternatives available at Acquisition Fee. Equally, it's a pretty daft time to buy players on the auction too - if you can you find better alternatives for cheaper prices.
Secondly, if you are worried about your players being poached (and if they are any good they will be) - sell them before the chaos begins. As soon as you play your last official game, list the players you want to sell. I have three players from my initial squad who are up for renewal who I don't want to protect (because they are not good enough). Two of these guys are decent and will be bid on by someone else. The other player (Alessandro - currently serving a 5 match FA ban) I am hoping someone does bid for! So the first two are going to be listed asap because I can probably get 3 times AF now rather than 1 times AF next week when they leave.
Thirdly, avoid auctions with 20+ bids already made - your chances of winning are slim to none. Find players that nobody else rates; bid big and bid late.
Follow these three rules and you should start next season with more money, better players and a manageable wage bill.
Firstly, it's a really bad time to try to sell players. Managers are not going to pay over the odds for your players if there are cheaper alternatives available at Acquisition Fee. Equally, it's a pretty daft time to buy players on the auction too - if you can you find better alternatives for cheaper prices.
Secondly, if you are worried about your players being poached (and if they are any good they will be) - sell them before the chaos begins. As soon as you play your last official game, list the players you want to sell. I have three players from my initial squad who are up for renewal who I don't want to protect (because they are not good enough). Two of these guys are decent and will be bid on by someone else. The other player (Alessandro - currently serving a 5 match FA ban) I am hoping someone does bid for! So the first two are going to be listed asap because I can probably get 3 times AF now rather than 1 times AF next week when they leave.
Thirdly, avoid auctions with 20+ bids already made - your chances of winning are slim to none. Find players that nobody else rates; bid big and bid late.
Follow these three rules and you should start next season with more money, better players and a manageable wage bill.
Monday 1 December 2008
Tough trading conditions
It's tough out there - ask Woolworths - nobody wants to buy but worse nobody wants to sell.
A few weeks into season one of Saunders and for the amount of active managers very few players are changing hands. I often count the number of players with an AF of over £100k on the auctions as an indicator of how liquid the market is at any one time (if the figure is low it's a good time to sell at a premium; if it's high there should be some bargains out there).
In a quiet market it's sometimes tempting to buy regardless of the quality available, but this is the wrong thing to do. The resale value of your potential targets is just as important as the job they can do for your team. If you are tempted to buy Marco Materazzi for £1m to sure up your defense, remember that he's probably only got one season left which means no time for anyone else to buy him from you before the 'R' of death icon appears next to his name. Only buy players who you know you can easily sell in a season's time. If they don't work out you get your money back - which is more Marks and Spencer than Woolsworths. And if you can be like John Lewis Partnership and never knowingly pay more for a player than you have to - you will do well in the long term.
I enquired about a former beta player of mine this week called Pablo Mouche. He was a super sub for me in GW15, great turn of pace, left footed, cool penalty taker and a penchant for supplying late goals with his drives to the byline. Given that very few people rate him I thought I could grab him for maybe £150-250k, given that he was previously listed at £300k and nobody bid. Unfortunately after my enquiry he was subsequently sold for £900k+. This tells me two things -1) my interest probably helped increase the price of any other offers out there and 2) the market must really be depressed if someone like him is going for nearly £1m.
You can often find absolute bargains like Mouche by filtering for key attributes and then combining the results with a low average rating. Strikers who make most of their appearances from the bench will struggle to average 6.7-6.8. This is not a problem - it's a massive opportunity. It's your negotiation point to bring up with the current manager and explain what a favour it is that you are prepared to take his rubbish player off his hands. Strikers are always without fail overpriced on auctions, so you are better off trying to negotiate private transfers for fringe players - especially from managers who prefer 451 and therefore are happy to sell their 2nd, 3rd or 4th ranked striker. I play with 3 strikers in my lineup, so unless I get a silly offer I wouldn't consider offers for my 4 playing strikers, only the 5th choice down. 451 guys are completely different. And I say fringe players because unless you have millions to spend nobody is going to sell you their best strikers.
Tough trading conditions require tough transfer negotiation styles. If in doubt, hold onto your money. Negotiation with managers for players they are underrating. Ignore average ratings for strikers - goals are far more important - especially for subs. If the auction market looks barren it's probably a good time to sell at inflated prices - but remember it's going to be difficult to replace anyone you sell - so only sell players who do not directly impact the quality of your team - like your reserve strikers.
A few weeks into season one of Saunders and for the amount of active managers very few players are changing hands. I often count the number of players with an AF of over £100k on the auctions as an indicator of how liquid the market is at any one time (if the figure is low it's a good time to sell at a premium; if it's high there should be some bargains out there).
In a quiet market it's sometimes tempting to buy regardless of the quality available, but this is the wrong thing to do. The resale value of your potential targets is just as important as the job they can do for your team. If you are tempted to buy Marco Materazzi for £1m to sure up your defense, remember that he's probably only got one season left which means no time for anyone else to buy him from you before the 'R' of death icon appears next to his name. Only buy players who you know you can easily sell in a season's time. If they don't work out you get your money back - which is more Marks and Spencer than Woolsworths. And if you can be like John Lewis Partnership and never knowingly pay more for a player than you have to - you will do well in the long term.
I enquired about a former beta player of mine this week called Pablo Mouche. He was a super sub for me in GW15, great turn of pace, left footed, cool penalty taker and a penchant for supplying late goals with his drives to the byline. Given that very few people rate him I thought I could grab him for maybe £150-250k, given that he was previously listed at £300k and nobody bid. Unfortunately after my enquiry he was subsequently sold for £900k+. This tells me two things -1) my interest probably helped increase the price of any other offers out there and 2) the market must really be depressed if someone like him is going for nearly £1m.
You can often find absolute bargains like Mouche by filtering for key attributes and then combining the results with a low average rating. Strikers who make most of their appearances from the bench will struggle to average 6.7-6.8. This is not a problem - it's a massive opportunity. It's your negotiation point to bring up with the current manager and explain what a favour it is that you are prepared to take his rubbish player off his hands. Strikers are always without fail overpriced on auctions, so you are better off trying to negotiate private transfers for fringe players - especially from managers who prefer 451 and therefore are happy to sell their 2nd, 3rd or 4th ranked striker. I play with 3 strikers in my lineup, so unless I get a silly offer I wouldn't consider offers for my 4 playing strikers, only the 5th choice down. 451 guys are completely different. And I say fringe players because unless you have millions to spend nobody is going to sell you their best strikers.
Tough trading conditions require tough transfer negotiation styles. If in doubt, hold onto your money. Negotiation with managers for players they are underrating. Ignore average ratings for strikers - goals are far more important - especially for subs. If the auction market looks barren it's probably a good time to sell at inflated prices - but remember it's going to be difficult to replace anyone you sell - so only sell players who do not directly impact the quality of your team - like your reserve strikers.
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