Tough trading conditions

It's tough out there - ask Woolworths - nobody wants to buy but worse nobody wants to sell.

A few weeks into season one of Saunders and for the amount of active managers very few players are changing hands. I often count the number of players with an AF of over £100k on the auctions as an indicator of how liquid the market is at any one time (if the figure is low it's a good time to sell at a premium; if it's high there should be some bargains out there).

In a quiet market it's sometimes tempting to buy regardless of the quality available, but this is the wrong thing to do. The resale value of your potential targets is just as important as the job they can do for your team. If you are tempted to buy Marco Materazzi for £1m to sure up your defense, remember that he's probably only got one season left which means no time for anyone else to buy him from you before the 'R' of death icon appears next to his name. Only buy players who you know you can easily sell in a season's time. If they don't work out you get your money back - which is more Marks and Spencer than Woolsworths. And if you can be like John Lewis Partnership and never knowingly pay more for a player than you have to - you will do well in the long term.

I enquired about a former beta player of mine this week called Pablo Mouche. He was a super sub for me in GW15, great turn of pace, left footed, cool penalty taker and a penchant for supplying late goals with his drives to the byline. Given that very few people rate him I thought I could grab him for maybe £150-250k, given that he was previously listed at £300k and nobody bid. Unfortunately after my enquiry he was subsequently sold for £900k+. This tells me two things -1) my interest probably helped increase the price of any other offers out there and 2) the market must really be depressed if someone like him is going for nearly £1m.

You can often find absolute bargains like Mouche by filtering for key attributes and then combining the results with a low average rating. Strikers who make most of their appearances from the bench will struggle to average 6.7-6.8. This is not a problem - it's a massive opportunity. It's your negotiation point to bring up with the current manager and explain what a favour it is that you are prepared to take his rubbish player off his hands. Strikers are always without fail overpriced on auctions, so you are better off trying to negotiate private transfers for fringe players - especially from managers who prefer 451 and therefore are happy to sell their 2nd, 3rd or 4th ranked striker. I play with 3 strikers in my lineup, so unless I get a silly offer I wouldn't consider offers for my 4 playing strikers, only the 5th choice down. 451 guys are completely different. And I say fringe players because unless you have millions to spend nobody is going to sell you their best strikers.

Tough trading conditions require tough transfer negotiation styles. If in doubt, hold onto your money. Negotiation with managers for players they are underrating. Ignore average ratings for strikers - goals are far more important - especially for subs. If the auction market looks barren it's probably a good time to sell at inflated prices - but remember it's going to be difficult to replace anyone you sell - so only sell players who do not directly impact the quality of your team - like your reserve strikers.