How much are players worth?

Nothing like a rhetorical title to confuse everyone I like to think, but it's a question that every manager thinks about several times a session in FML? Why? Well maybe because FML has more in common with Command & Conquer or Warcraft III than Pro Evo or FIFA 09. It's a resource management game where you have two resources if you will; players and cash.

Lionel Messi (having slated him in the last article) has just been transferred for what I guess is a server record of £18m. Is he worth it? Well according to the in game banter and endless reply to alls on the discussion lists (and yes I know they have to be reply to alls) yes and/or no. Simple.

Some managers don't understand how the buying manager can afford £18m. A quick butchers at his transfers tabs will demonstrate a methodical approach (built up over shared beta worlds) where he generated as much cash as possible in the first week, then went on a focused trading strategy to generate our second resource from above, cash. He has now started to convert that cash into talent - namely Messi (plus others in his squad). Now obviously there are changes afoot in January to prevent this type of approach, and as realism goes it again demonstrates that FML is vastly different to FMxx. It's not a simulation, it's fantasy football, it's trading players like shares (or meat if you prefer), it's a RTS game.

But is Messi worth £18m? He's young, one of the top 5 players in the gameworld, has one of the highest if not the highest potential (197/200 in FM08) and if played correctly will obviously improve the quality of a team. He will obviously be an asset for a long time, and there is little chance that he would be sold for profit given the high cash figure. Yet to determine whether he is worth the money we must consider what alternatives are on offer.

Could two almost as good players be bought for the same amount? Almost definitely yes. An example of this would be if you compare the abilities of Messi and a bunch of random other good players purely by comparing their current abilities as per FM08 (and senior players don't change much year on year) you would see that Messi is 11% better than Breno, 11% better than Adrien, 6% better than Rooney, 26% better than Javi Martinez and 25% than Gareth Bale. I reckon any two of those players could be bought for £18m.

I'd like to return to an old article written about acquisition fees. AFs make good players look better than they are because the increments change in size on the scale. At the top end, increments change in units of £250,000, around the average level of £100,000 AF they move in blocks of £10,000. A change for Fabregas from £3.25m to £3.5m looks huge, but is in fact the same movement of £100k to £110k for Oliver Kapo. Is Fabregas worth 30 times the value of Kapo? No - he's 29% better (180 current ability / 140 current ability minus 1). The best value for money players are in the £150k to £350k range. A team full of £300k AF players would win most of their games. Purely looking at AF tends to give the impression that the good players are so much better than the above average players when it is just not true. Because the scale is not linear the better players get exponentially more expensive the higher you go up the scale. There are a bunch of average £1m AF players who are no better, and often if they have high reputation somewhat worse, than the best £250k players.

If it was me, I'd take £18m for Messi, I don't think I would bid that much for him. £18m for me would represent 4-5 first team players who would collectively improve my starting 11 and increase the standing of my club. Again, as mentioned in a previous article the best deal I saw struck in beta was Fabregas for Baylon, Caio, Javi Martinez, Alex Teixiera and £2m. Four first team players with lower wages than Cesc plus cash - improved the team, reduced the wage bill and increased the cash balance. That is the definition of a good deal and is hard to dispute. You can easily dispute the Messi deal. Personally I think that many of the top names are vanity buys - favourite players IRL, trophy players or commodities ready to be sold on for a profit.

FML is Command & Conquer or Warcraft III not Emlyn Hughes' Soccer, Sensible Soccer, Kick Off, Football Director or Match Day. What goes on off the pitch is not the prelude to what happens on the pitch, it's the vast majority of the game.

Tough trading conditions

It's tough out there - ask Woolworths - nobody wants to buy but worse nobody wants to sell.

A few weeks into season one of Saunders and for the amount of active managers very few players are changing hands. I often count the number of players with an AF of over £100k on the auctions as an indicator of how liquid the market is at any one time (if the figure is low it's a good time to sell at a premium; if it's high there should be some bargains out there).

In a quiet market it's sometimes tempting to buy regardless of the quality available, but this is the wrong thing to do. The resale value of your potential targets is just as important as the job they can do for your team. If you are tempted to buy Marco Materazzi for £1m to sure up your defense, remember that he's probably only got one season left which means no time for anyone else to buy him from you before the 'R' of death icon appears next to his name. Only buy players who you know you can easily sell in a season's time. If they don't work out you get your money back - which is more Marks and Spencer than Woolsworths. And if you can be like John Lewis Partnership and never knowingly pay more for a player than you have to - you will do well in the long term.

I enquired about a former beta player of mine this week called Pablo Mouche. He was a super sub for me in GW15, great turn of pace, left footed, cool penalty taker and a penchant for supplying late goals with his drives to the byline. Given that very few people rate him I thought I could grab him for maybe £150-250k, given that he was previously listed at £300k and nobody bid. Unfortunately after my enquiry he was subsequently sold for £900k+. This tells me two things -1) my interest probably helped increase the price of any other offers out there and 2) the market must really be depressed if someone like him is going for nearly £1m.

You can often find absolute bargains like Mouche by filtering for key attributes and then combining the results with a low average rating. Strikers who make most of their appearances from the bench will struggle to average 6.7-6.8. This is not a problem - it's a massive opportunity. It's your negotiation point to bring up with the current manager and explain what a favour it is that you are prepared to take his rubbish player off his hands. Strikers are always without fail overpriced on auctions, so you are better off trying to negotiate private transfers for fringe players - especially from managers who prefer 451 and therefore are happy to sell their 2nd, 3rd or 4th ranked striker. I play with 3 strikers in my lineup, so unless I get a silly offer I wouldn't consider offers for my 4 playing strikers, only the 5th choice down. 451 guys are completely different. And I say fringe players because unless you have millions to spend nobody is going to sell you their best strikers.

Tough trading conditions require tough transfer negotiation styles. If in doubt, hold onto your money. Negotiation with managers for players they are underrating. Ignore average ratings for strikers - goals are far more important - especially for subs. If the auction market looks barren it's probably a good time to sell at inflated prices - but remember it's going to be difficult to replace anyone you sell - so only sell players who do not directly impact the quality of your team - like your reserve strikers.

Let battle commence

Ok, today is the first day of the end of season wage auctions bloodbath. After winning my AEFA league I received £630k in additional prize money. I sold Asamoah to Azazel for £1.45m following a longstanding agreement with their manager that he would have first refusal. I also sold the three first team players I had who's contracts were up.

All three went for their instant buy out amounts in a matter of hours. Whilst I was happy to receive the money - it probably means I under priced them. A good tip (which I didn't follow) is if you get an opening bid within minutes of an auction started increase your buy out amount - because the bid means that it will be a popular player. My 30 year old £26k right back when for £200k, my 30 year old £80k AF DC went for £300k and my £90k striker went for £450k. So I received £950k for players who would have only given me £196k if I lost them on wage auctions. Many managers get upset about losing their players - I see it as a way to make more money. So £630k+£1.45m+£950k means I now have £3m more in the bank than I did two days ago. Nobody in my senior squad is now available on wage auction.

However I only have 15 senior players left in my squad now. I have sold two starting strikers, a DC and a DR. I've also sold a couple of under 21s.

Today's auction highlights include Zarate, Agbonlahor and Essien. I don't think I will be able to win any of those auctions with my strict wage structure. Therefore I will be looking for value amongst the less popular players. Following my last post, I went to great lengths to stress you don't need world class players to be successful. So I will report back on how successful I have been in signing some hidden gems - but I can't really say who they are yet...

I have all but stopped playing games whilst I rebuild my squad. I fully expect to drop down the rankings from my peak of number 2 (currently 7), but I am not really bothered. I'd rather focus on scouting and practicing the wage auctions.

Early season transfer strategy

The first few days of the 1st season in a gameworld are indeed a strange time. The first week in a gameworld representing pre-season and lots of desparate attempts to sign players. Many players bolster their squads with trial signings.

When the 1st season begins in the second week, things change. Firstly you get about £300k of media money. Secondly you have to play some official games, with far more ranking points on offer. It is really important that you get your transfer strategy correct in this week. You will see all the best players under £600k start to get signed up in rapid time. You have to make this period count and get the players you need to bolster your squad.

So - be honest about your squad. Where are the weak links? I'd focus on making sure you have the best striker, playmaker and central defender you can sign. Minor positions can take a back seat for now. You could either spend your entire transfer fund on one player - or spread it across 2 or 3. However how you bid for players is vital to your success. I recommend following this approach:

1. Write down your team on a piece of paper and put tick, question mark or cross against each of your starting 11. Tick the ones you think are strong enough for the league, question mark those you are not sure, cross the ones you know are too weak. Which positions are the crosses in? Are they concentrated in one area? Congratulations you have just prioritised your targets by position.

2. Create a shortlist of players who fit your positional, value and attribute parameters. Check each on to see if he is on a trial, is currently being bid on or is currently idle. If someone else has bid, the clock is already ticking.

3. Don't bid on the player you want. Draw up a list of players you want and check out when their trials expire, or their auctions end. I wanted a DC or a MC yesterday.

4. The strategy you should follow is to put all your money into one bid to get the best player possible. You never start a bid unless a trial is about to end. That means you have tied up all your money for 24 hours and have no flexibility. Don't spread your money thin by bidding on average players. You will outgrow average players and nobody wants to buy them from you. My strategy is to sign the first person on my list, and everytime I miss out I move onto the next target. It guarantees me one good player, and then I start again with however much money I have left.

Here is my list, along with auction time and who started the auction:

Pique 22:42 - KadowMeaw 31th - bid £24k =bank limit, lost

Davies 01:00 - AZ Bruntsfield - passed - not good enough

Fazio 17:28 - Phantoms - bid £26.9k, won £20k

David Luiz 19:29 - KadowMeaw 31th - went for £8k

De la Red 20:01 -Busted Flush

Taylor 20:05 - Maceys Magicians

Naldo 20:12 - Gesh Utd

Burdisso 20:24 - JuJu FC

Sobis - 23:58 - mighty magpies - went cheap

Martinez 01:01 - AZ Bruntsfield - went for £37.5k wages

So I started with bidding on Pique, lost him and then went all in for Fazio. Luckily I won him, I think he is an excellent player and still 21. If I had lost him, 2 hours later I had a chance with David Luiz, another great DC. Had I missed him I would have gone for De la Red (I like his PPMs), then maybe Steven Taylor (but I am not convinced on him) then Naldo, Burdisso, Sobis or Javi Martinez.

Notice how Nick from AZ Bruntsfield started auctions exactly 24 hours apart. He is following a similar strategy but he is starting auctions because he has clear targets in his mind. He had Martinez in GW10 and he was a legend (I would not have bid £37.5k wages for him). Also notice mighty magpies starting an auction at 23:58. This is very clever because it means the auction ends just before everybody gets paid their daily money - and stops new bidders coming into the race.

A really important point here is that if you want to be successful in FML, you should forget about signing an individual player and be prepared to sign one of a handful of players who fit your requirements. At the end of the day, I didn't really mind whether I won Pique, Fazio, Burdisso or Luiz - I just wanted one of them.

Don't tie all your money up for 24 hours, bid late and bid aggressively on wages. There is no prizes for coming second, and if you are prepared to pay £19.5k wages, you should be prepared to pay £20.5k and beat all the guys bidding round numbers like £20k.

Luckily for me I had enough money left to buy another £150k player, so I quickly moved former Dutch U21 Ajax player Hewiges Maduro - who has locked down my midfield quite nicely. However I still need an authentic playermaker, but that can wait for now. Just need to sell Lucas Trecarichi to fund the move!